Interbet Weekend Blog
Friday, 25 July 2025Fans often hear tipsters and experienced bettors talk about their “value’ selection, but what is it exactly?
In the same way that we have an intuitive sense of a good deal when buying a flat, car or a set of golf clubs, value is simply the price relative to its perceived worth.
In racing terms if the odds are generous compared to the horses’ chances, then a value play has been found. Some short- priced faves can be great value if their true chances exceed market expectations, but more typically medium-priced horses or longshots are marked up a good value plays by the media and tipsters with subscribers/followers.
But it is not quite a simple as it seems. Firstly, there is no value in a losing bet. If you come up with a cleverly researched, wise guy, “ find” at a big price and it loses, the stake money is lost and you’re poorer – end of story.
Secondly, determining true probabilities of each horse in every race is not something that can be accurately calibrated. There is so much that is unknown in a complex game like horse-racing. Even using AI, it is doubtful a powerful computer program can precisely state that a horse has, say a 32% chance of victory as opposed to a 40% claim.
Despite those concerns there is much to be said for at least trying to work out what are fair odds, in your own considered opinion. Only then can you decide if any betting proposition carries a positive or negative expectation.
You do that by comparing what you believe the probability of success is for each horse, to what the market is offering.
Overlays are horses that are deemed to have a better chance of scoring than the market reckons. And underlays are those that have a lesser probability of winning than public (Tote) or fixed odds with bookies indicate.
The basic game plan of many pro bettors around the world is to try to bet the overlays as intelligently as possible and avoid the money-burning, “unders.” They strive to achieve profits over the long- term following these methods, as difficult as executing it may be.
Reason being, is that modern betting markets are uber-efficient. They generally reflect the chances of the participants accurately with most horses priced right. All a value orientated punter can do is seek out occasional discrepancies.
This may happen only rarely, but a clever punter will be patient and selective, then craft bets around fancies that have a genuine shake at winning, when they go to post as overlays.
Even if casual fans find this too calculating and joyless the underlying philosophy is sound. Much of the fun of being a horseplayer is being free to have an opinion, but it should not end there with simply who you “like.”
Once you feel you’ve found the winner, don’t just bet it automatically if the odds are too skinny/unappealing.
Rather set a minimum acceptable price and bet confidently when you receive a similar quote or better still, over those odds.
Check out the new exchange at interbet.co.za. Not only are the prices highly competitive but % commission enhances an already attractive offer to South African punters.
