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From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

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Fire Attack s/s 111 is by far the best horse in the London News Stakes, a G3 to be run at Turffontein on Saturday but he comes into the race under a cloud.

He was sick and then got injured when in Cape Town, so underperformed badly. It’s hard what to make of him after travelling back home, though he’s in excellent hands with Alec Laird. Not being sure whether to endorse or reject Fire Attack, it’s probably a race to sit on the sidelines as an “observer.”

There are, however, some betting opportunities at Durbanville’s Saturday meeting, with Bonelli, Ireland Forever, Powerandtheglory, and All is Green of interest.

Bonelli got a figure of 85 + on the 21st January behind Prairie Dawn over the course and distance. That sort of number is usually good enough to win a Cape Maiden, and though Protector of Peace s/s 88 is feared, Bonelli can improve past him to open his account in Race 3. He is quoted at about 5/2 in early markets for high percentage combo Candice Bass and Aldo Domeyer.

Ireland Forever s/s 95 is poorly drawn and comes from off the pace, two knocks against his claims given how the Durbanville tracks typically favors on pace runners. However, he possesses a powerful finish and a fast run 1400m Class 4 is his game. He is a bit of a swing but with even luck, the 14/1 shot should give punters a run for their money each way in Race 9.

His main threats, amongst many legit rivals, are Marcus Aurelius s/s 94 who is also a late running danger together with well exposed Carriacou s/s 94 and Boogiefied s/s 94.

Trainer, Des MacLachlan hit form with a midweek double, both horses ridden by the flamboyant Grant van Niekerk, who is apparently soon to be Mauritius- bound. They send out stable star, Jet Force s/s 104 in Race 8, dropping sharply in class after running credibly against SA’s best milers in the Green Point Stakes and King’s Plate.

Some punters will see no reason to look beyond the very talented 13/10 favourite, but Powerandtheglory s/s 107 got a big figure over the 1400m trip when just missing behind Snow Pilot on Met Day. He is in the form of his life and could give Jet Force, (who is drawn wide, drops in distance and comes from off the speed) a fright. Price can determine which horse to support – with a slight preference towards Powerandtheglory at 3/1 and above.

5/1 middle pin, All Is Green s/s 91 is lightly raced at intervals – often a sign of unsoundness. That said, cagey conditioner, Greg Ennion is another Cape trainer who has his yard in sharp nick. All Is Green ran close to best last time after a layoff which gives her a shake in Race 6, a modest Class 4 for fillies and mares over 1000m.

Some of her peak runs have come at her second run after a spell, so she is teed up, with Craig Zackey sticking solid, to put forth a big effort.

Alternatives in a competitive race are December Dawn s/s 91, Saachi One and Caribbean Gold s/s 88.

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Mark van Deventer
Mark Van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. He’s long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer speed figures in America, has always been his inspirational “guru.” So, the figures that underpin Mark’s analysis use Beyer’s main concepts, and have been adapted to suit South African racecourses.

The racing bug can be compelling - since 2013, this U.C.T. Psychology graduate has settled into a career as a full time journalist and racing manager.

Mark uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions, building a reputation of integrity in the media as an imaginative handicapper with the ability to unearth live runners at juicy prices.

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