From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

The luck of the draw applies in horse racing, too. At some tracks and distances, the draw has a big impact on how races are run tactically – and the ensuing outcome.

It stands to reason in races around a turn, being drawn towards the inside and taking the shortest route home is preferred. Especially so when the start is affected close to a bend as horses drawn wide must use up energy to quickly dart across, or alternatively they drop out and concede crucial ground to better drawn horses.

Such a scenario plays out in most races at Greyville, on the Polytrack at Fairview, Durbanville and around Turffontein’s inside track.

Here are some stats to support those visual cues:

Greyville 1000m – (sample size 9937 runners) Inside draws supplied 36.6% of the winners from 30.1% of the runners — that ratio is the Win IV (1.21). Outside draws over this course and distance had a negative I.V. of .81.

Durbanville 1250m – (sample size 4384 runners) Inside draws supplied 35.4% of the winners from 30.0% of the runners — that ratio is the Win IV (1.18). Outside draws over this C/D had a negative I.V. of .83.

Turffontein 1450m inside track – (sample size 9705 runners) Inside draws supplied 43.0% of the winners from 30.1% of the runners — that ratio is the Win IV (1.42). Outside draws over this course and distance had an extremely negative I.V. of .67

Fairview Poly track 1200m (sample size 9204 runners) Inside draws supplied 34.7% of the winners from 30.2% of the runners — that ratio is the Win IV (1.15). Outside draws over this C/D had a negative I.V. of .86

Whilst important to understand the effect of the draw, this data merely upholds what is common knowledge. And it will be baked into the price, so form horses with favourable draws will typically be offered at shorter odds than those with similar form credentials drawn out wide.

Some discretion is required because price matters. A good draw may enhance confidence in your speed figure standout selection, whilst a longshot with the redeeming virtue of being well handicapped on back form, who is drawn terribly wide, should perhaps not be thrown off your ticket.

A few other observations:

Over a 12 862-runner sample, the effect of the draw down the Scottsville straight is muted, with similar impact values towards the inside and middle, and only slightly lower scores for high numbers.

1000m sprints at Durbanville are amongst the most skewed with an I.V. of 1.33 for inside entries versus a mere I.V. of .6 for those drawn on the outer.

Even though Turffontein 1160m sprints are run down a straight, there is a significant bias towards the stand side. An I.V. of 1.24 for higher numbers is contrasted by a weak I.V. of .84 for those gated in low stalls. Those are the results drawn from a meaningful sample of 11 348 runners.

Monitoring historical trends such as these is most useful. But horseplayers must also be alert to shifting conditions in the short term - such as the day of races. Extreme weather conditions can lead to a sudden, and perhaps short-lived bias which trumps long term trends. It may, or may not change things completely, but some effect will be manifest.

Take the Vaal 1200m course. It is better to be drawn towards the inner on good going (I.V. of 1.16) but that advantage is exaggerated by thunderstorms causing soft ground as the I.V. climbs to 1.41.

And at Kenilworth’s 1200m straightaway, being drawn on the outside is only a slight issue on a firm surface (I.V. .92) but becomes a serious disadvantage on heavy going as the I.V. slumps to a pitiful .56.

To put this all in perspective - the natural ability of the horse, it’s level of fitness, the skills of the trainer/jockey and the exact circumstances within each unique race (e.g. pace) are fundamental factors that must always be considered. 

The draw is often only a “secondary” influence on race results. But in a game of fine margins, starting stall positions may end up the difference between victory and defeat.

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