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FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH WITH MARK VAN DEVENTER

Gold Cup Day 2024 - Interbet Preview

Friday, 26 July 2024

Sunday sees a full card with multiple Graded Stakes races to capture fan’s attention – together with substantial betting handle going through the HKJC World Pool. There are tempting carry-forwards as well, so form students around the globe will be burning the midnight oil in preparation.

Here’s a short- cut preview of each race – highlighting the main contenders, with speed scores provided:

RACE 1: Imelenzeyokududuma (s/s 106) figures to get a good trip in what should be a torridly run race. He has a powerful finish and looks appealing value at 13/1 ante-post. Money Heist (s/s 104) also can turn it on yet faces a tougher commute from draw 11, as does the consistent, Pomodoro’s Jet (s/s 104) in gate 14. Speed on the rail is always an advantage at Greyville, so Joker Man (s/s 97+), Get Impressed (s/s 102) and It’srainingwilliam (s/s 106) should give good sights racing handy from low barriers but could be vulnerable to the selections stretch rally.

RACE 2: Rodeo Drive (s/s 94+) fits the speed- on- the- rail track profile for races over 1200m, and gets ace pilot, Richard Fourie to judge the fractions expertly. Watch for a late bid from Just Reckless (s/s 92+.)

RACE 3: Bjorn Ironside (s/s 97) earned a big fig at his fourth second start when narrowly outrun by highly regarded, Pistol Pete. The Gimmethegreenlight gelding shows strong potential and can sit a good trip racing handy, yet will need to get past the super quick, Chocolate Soldier (s/s 97) who sports the same top number and has experience at this turning course. Dantonfromsandton (s/s 94) is not far behind on the ratings, whilst the nippy, Daring Dash (s/s 88+) can improve into the frame if beating draw 10.

RACE 4: Win machine, Quid Pro Quo (s/s 101) is arguably SA’s top juvenile filly. She has a big edge in the speed scores and goes for five on the bounce after a career peak performance in the Slipper over 1400m at this venue. Two slight knocks against the even money favourite are that she stretches out an extra furlong and is an off- pace closer drawn wide. Who might pick up the pieces if she runs out of luck and underperforms? World of Alice (s/s 92), Fatal Flaw (s/s 92) and the unexposed, Lock and Key (s/s 89+) are amongst several hard-to-assess, rivals lurking in the wings.

RACE 5: Great Plains (s/s 101) was not a factor when slow, wide and awkward at his most recent outing. But he really caught the eye with a flashy turn of foot when winning his previous two starts and maybe Keagan de Melo can settle/position him better to revive this talented grey’s fortunes. Juveniles are apt to make dramatic improvement when stretching out so there are many plausible contenders in this 1600m Champion Stakes G1. Cosmic Speed (s/s 96) easily won the race Great Plains duffed and is a must- use; Sean Tarry- trained companion, The Legend of Arthur (s/s 88++) has untapped ability whilst The Specialist’s (s/s 92+) tactical versatility can compensate for his lighter speed figures.

RACE 6: At My Command (s/s 109) is the pick in the G1 Mercury Sprint. The 7/2 second favourite is a top notch, brave campaigner who has not enjoyed the rub of the green with wide draws and torrid trips on a few occasions. Brett Crawford’s entry now gets a chance to set the record straight. Royal Aussie (s/s 112) is better over 1400/1600m and comes out after an 81-day freshening, but the Drill Hall victor has the class as a strong galloping pace presser to be respected. The undeniably brilliant, hold-up sprinter, Lucky Lad (s/s 110) spots the marginal top figure yet has not shaped in a couple of previous starts at this track and is terribly drawn at 13 for this 1200m race, so is big “unders” at 12/10. Surjay (s/s 108), I am Giant (s/s 106) and the enigmatic Cape Guineas hero, Snow Pilot (s/s 108) are wider considerations.

RACE 7: Champion stayer, Future Pearl (s/s 110) won the G3 Gold Cup last year and is primed to repeat the feat, after storming from the rear in the July with a good come-home sectional, though is quite skinny at 14/10 to do so. He has most to fear from Future Swing who was completely taken out in a rough July. This 6/1 shot has a victory over that big race winner, Oriental Charm to his credit at his penultimate start. There is a sizeable Quartet carryover to the 3200m test of endurance – Master Redoute (s/s 106), Nebraas (s/s 104), One Way Traffic (s/s 103), Master Fuego (s/s 105), Aragosta (s/s 106) and Ponte Pietra (s/s 105) all have legitimate claims to hit the board.

RACE 8: The HKJC Champions Cup (G1) is tough to call with the high class, off pace closer, See It Again (s/s 114), “stalk-and-pouncer”, Dave the King (s/s 113) and rapidly emerging three-year-old Flag Man (s/s 109+) hard to separate. If Dave the King gets a convenient tow by Purple Pitcher (the lone potential leader on the speed map) then he could benefit from the run of the race. See It Again would be deserving as he’s run with distinction throughout his career, maintaining a slot at the apex of SA’s middle distance rankings. The tactically adaptable Flag Man comes in off a hard July showdown. If that gruelling race has not set the youngster back, then he too can win this.

RACE 9: The ante-post market seems pretty fair in an open Gold Bracelet (G2) and it may pay to wait for significant shifts before committing to an overlay win wager. Red Palace (s/s 105) weak 9/2 favourite, Beating Wings (s/s 102), Happy Chance (s/s 106), Rascova (s/s 104), Saartjie (s/s 101), Gilded Butterfly (s/s 104), None Other (s/s 103), Future Girl (s/s 99), Hold My Hand (s/s 100) and Perfect Witness (s/s 101) should be kept onside in a “spready” final Leg of the big R12 million expected P6 pool.

RACE 10: Uber-talented, Pistol Pete (s/s 105) is tipped to take out the Umgeni Sprint as this youngster is imbued with tremendous natural speed. See how Bjorn Ironside fares in Race 3 – if he runs huge then confidence in Pistol Pete can be upgraded. However, this Tony Peter trained lightweight has not run around the Greyville turn nor competed under lights, so there are a few queries. Main dangers are Dreamland (s/s 99+) who should get a fantastic trip under Fourie against the inside rail, and very smart speedball, King of the Gauls (s/s 104) though he draws the widest marble of all (14). Hitthemhardsunshine (s/s 101) on whom Rachel Venniker is a perfect 2/2, can get a neat passage off all the contested speed so looms as a possible single race exotic tote buster and each way overlay at 20/1. Underworld (s/s 105), Magic Tattoo (s/s 102) and Lunarcam (s/s 102) are possibilities for the lower slots.

Mark van Deventer

Mark van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. He’s long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer speed figures in America, has always been his inspirational “guru.” So, the figures that underpin Mark’s analysis use Beyer’s main concepts, and have been adapted to suit South African racecourses.

The racing bug can be compelling - since 2013, this U.C.T. Psychology graduate has settled into a career as a full time journalist and racing manager.

Mark uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions, building a reputation of integrity in the media as an imaginative handicapper with the ability to unearth live runners at juicy prices.

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