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From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

Interbet Betting Blog

Jockeys Attract The Cash.

Adam Dobbin recently wrote an interesting piece in RaceNet. He provided evidence that the best jockeys have a major impact on betting turnover. Quality horses are also a factor, but it’s the high-profile hoops who really move the needle.

When it comes to the Australasian jockey ranks, no one is smashed more in the betting than James McDonald (aka J’Mac.) Consider these annual figures:

TOTAL TURNOVER (ESTIMATE)
• $370m – James McDonald
• $285m – William Pike (The “King” of Western Australia)
• $182m – Craig Williams
• $165m – Zac Lloyd (son of Jeff Lloyd)
• $164m – Tommy Berry
• $149m – Mark Zahra
• $137m – Jamie Melham
• $128m – Ben Thompson
• $126m – Jason Collett
• $119m – Nash Rawiller.

AVERAGE TURNOVER PER RIDE (ESTIMATE)
• $702,134 – James McDonald
• $536,234 – Mark Zahra
• $391,775 – Blake Shinn
• $381,432 – William Pike
• $329,857 – Jamie Melham
• $302,443 – Craig Williams
• $264,165 – Damian Lane
• $263,448 – Ethan Brow
• $243,661 – Zac Lloyd
• $242,365 – Tommy Berry.

It would be most informative to get comparable figures for jockeys in South Africa and see the impact those with strong followings have on betting turnovers.

Many punters base betting action around their favourite jockeys, without doing much beyond just superficially handicapping the horses. Their focus is on selected jockey’s rides for the day.

A reality-check - nothing in racing comes easily. Blindly punting the top jocks, nearly all of whom have a negative R.O.I. on unit stakes, is not the key to the mint.

A bit more discretion is needed.

Previous blogs have looked at high percentage trainer/jockey combos which could, using some savvy, take a punter to the brink of profitability, assuming attractive odds are offered about live chances.

Running style and affinity with horses for course is another angle. Some jockeys do well on horses that like to be ridden a certain way at a particular track. Restricting action to those occasions might improve the R.O.I.

Like all sportsmen, jockeys go through hot and cold streaks. Apprentice Mosaheb is currently on fire on Greyville with a 30%-win rate there. Gavin Lerena and Serino Moodley are the go-to guys at Scottsville where they are respectively connecting at 25% and 22% rates.

Keagan de Melo has been riding light out at the Vaal (26%.) Down in the Cape, Richard Fourie is the hometown hero of Durbanville where the track suits his preferred way of race-riding. He is usually deadly at Fairview, too.

That said, jockeys are not miracle workers who can make slow horses go fast. But the top guys get the best opportunities and make fewer errors. Crucially, in a game of slim margins, they often make the difference in close finishes. That’s precisely what trainer, Justin Snaith acknowledged after Richard Fourie got Cedar Point up in a “worldy” of a ride at Durbanville during the week. Success in racing is clearly expressed by results, only problem is it’s typically baked into the prices offered in the market.

I’ve always thought it better to concentrate on the horses first and foremost. Let that be the fundamental factor when choosing who to bet on.

Squandering hard earned cash on inept riders is foolish and there is no need to do so. Fortunately, there are enough competent jockeys around who can get the job done given the opportunity. And you can always scale up the size of your punt if your generously priced fancy is ridden by one of the elite pilots.

 

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Mark van Deventer
Mark Van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. He’s long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer speed figures in America, has always been his inspirational “guru.” So, the figures that underpin Mark’s analysis use Beyer’s main concepts, and have been adapted to suit South African racecourses.

The racing bug can be compelling - since 2013, this U.C.T. Psychology graduate has settled into a career as a full time journalist and racing manager.

Mark uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions, building a reputation of integrity in the media as an imaginative handicapper with the ability to unearth live runners at juicy prices.

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