From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

Whether punters do it intuitively, or crunch numbers for greater accuracy, working out how good horses are is a fundamental part of the racing game.

I think a sporting analogy is helpful to understand the basic concept. We all get it that Arsenal should hammer - say Peterborough, if they were to meet in the FA Cup. Reason being, they are a vastly more skilled team.

And in horse racing, much of the time, the race is won by the steed with superior ability to its rivals.

More subtle, though, is understanding the role that circumstances and special preferences play in the outcome. To use the Arsenal vs Peterborough example, it would not matter whether the game is played home or away, on a dry or sodden pitch, by day or under lights.

But in many instances, where the differences in ability are less noticeable, in a mid-table clash between - say, Everton and Crystal Palace, slight changes in the conditions can influence the result. 

These sporting illustrations are common knowledge: India are toughest to beat playing cricket at home, but would often get cleaned up on English pitches; Rafael Nadal on clay was practically invincible - but could be slightly vulnerable on fast, low-bouncing courts. The All Blacks on a wet Dunedin pitch are fearsome, yet they could be found out when travelling to South Africa and tested at high altitude.

Similarly, horse punters must constantly make nuanced judgement calls about what each horse prefers or dislikes. Their ability may be established – the trick is to note precisely the circumstances under which peak performances are likely to be delivered.

Here’s a checklist to provide a few basic guidelines, though it is not comprehensive by any means:

? Propensity for a certain distance – sprinters, middle distance or stayers.

? “Horses for courses,” some prefer a particular track configuration, be it tight or galloping, left or right-handed, short or long run in, flat, uphill or downhill.

? Suited by the going – firm or wet.

? Sensitive to the pace of the race.

? Linked to the above, like to be ridden in a particular way - leading, handy or held up.

? Comfortable in small fields, or instead, save their best work for large fields.

? Round into form according to the seasons.

? An affinity with a particular jockey.

? Relish travelling to other cities or only ever fulfill their top rating at their local circuit.

Damon Runyon, one of American finest humorists, wrote a great racing story, “It Comes Up Mud” to illustrate a specific point in an entertaining yarn about a mudlark.

Not to betray too much and spoil the story - it revolves around a horse aptly called Last Hope, who the wishful owner/trainer, Little Alphie backed to win the Kentucky Derby, on the assumption that he is a “superior mudder” who virtually grows an extra leg on a sloppy track.

It doesn’t work out as Little Alphie anticipated - well not quite, but the twists in the tale will keep you engrossed and, ultimately, inspired.

Enjoy the racing this weekend – maybe you too find a horse with subtly, unusual quirks who gets precisely the right set up and comes to light at a big price.