From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

Six of the ten EPL showdowns in Matchweek 3 ended in draws, which is higher than expected. Across a massive historical sample of football games, the typical probability of a draw is usually between 20% - 30%.

Obviously, there is short term variation depending on the opposition and special circumstances but going on the expected probabilities around one in four matches usually ends in parity, not six out of ten. 

Bettors who covered draws last weekend would have profited from their foresight.

Chelsea gave it a good go versus the formidable Arsenal yet came up short. The Gunners are committed and organized with a renowned defence but also threatened going forward. Sustaining this level of excellence could well see them double up after lifting the EPL trophy last season. Interbet have them at odds of 15/20 to do so, which implies a probability of 60%.

Manchester United still look a tiny bit suspect and are not quite as dangerous in attack as they need to be. Their defense is average and also needs fortifying. That said, it would be unfair to chastise them given the two wonder goals Everton scored to draw in last week’s clash. United are priced at 20/1 on Interbet to win the EPL.

As for devoted Spurs’ fans, sorry to say their team is way off it to start with, and, in fact, have yet to score a goal. They are bound to improve – given how much money has been spent, they ought to shine up to avoid big-time embarrassment. 

But they’ve blown completely in the betting and are now 100/1 longshots to win the 2026/27 EPL.

Though they snaffled a victory, Manchester City battled to impose themselves upon Coventry who have lost all three games this season. 

It raises an interesting tactical question – Coventry, who won the Championship last season playing attacking soccer are attempting to do the same thing at this higher level and are getting found out.

In contrast, Hull, who were arguably most fortunate to go up after not convincing at all in the Championship, are playing a different scrapping/combative style of footy in the EPL and find themselves perched in 3rd spot on the log.

In truth, they are outperforming their underlying metrics as they have an Expected Goal of nearly five against yet have not conceded a solitary strike. Such “luck” is unlikely to continue.

Aston Villa creates the impression of being a side going through a mini rebuild and still trying to gel.

Despite being highly organized, Brentford were given the run around by Sunderland last weekend but held out for a draw. Brentford play direct, effective soccer which makes them competitive in all scenarios, but they are beatable.

Leeds were solid enough in their draw with Brighton. The Seagulls are technically sharp but currently lack quality wingers (due to injuries) and are a touch inconsistent as a result.

Liverpool defeated Ipswich taking advantage of two goalkeeping errors early on. They are at 16/1 in the betting, where the lift-the-trophy market is utterly dominated by Arsenal and Manchester City at 28/10.

Crystal Palace are becoming a more possession-based side under their new manager, Sage. They got the job done against Fulham, who were a mess defensively. 

There are already early warning signs for the Thames – side team as apart from those defensive frailties, simmering squad discontent with manager Arbeloa could prove disruptive.

Newcastle have caught the eye in making a bright start. They are a sharp team that strives to master the basics and press well.

After three rounds of the EPL there are eight unbeaten sides – Arsenal, Manchester City, Hull, Brentford, Liverpool, Newcastle, Everton and Leeds.

Then, there are four sides still without a win, yet they’ve at least picked up draws along the way: Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa & Tottenham Hotspur,

And two strugglers, (Fulham & Coventry) have failed to obtain a single point.

Once more comprehensive data becomes available and collateral form has settled down somewhat, this Soccer Blog will shift from reviews to forecasting and making predictions – a format that proved popular during the 2025/26 EPL season. 

The Goal Guru awaits MatchWeek 4 with great interest. 

Good luck and enjoy the soccer!!