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From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

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Gimmie Rules s/s 96 ++ will be a popular anchor in multiple bets on Saturday. Ante post he is quoted at 4/10 deep odds on.

Renowned Classic conditioner, Dean Kannemeyer is teeing him up for a dip at the Cape Guineas and his charge needs to handle the Kenilworth turn and win convincingly in Race 3 to firm up his claims in the upcoming prestigious Gr1.

Gimmie Rules’ main menace is Jet Force s/s 103, an older Master of my Fate gelding that has already won three of four starts under Des McLachlan. Whether he can concede 4.5kg’s to an emerging talent that is incredibly highly rated by jockey Craig Zackey, is debatable.

Many punters are reluctant to bet unproven Maidens against winners. But, if their figures withstand scrutiny and the price is right, then why not take a dip?

Cedar Point got a neat s/s of 86 + when running a quick closing sectional and staying on behind one of the most promising 3YO’s around, Miami Summer just 17 days ago.

Trainer Justin Snaith steps him out in Race 4, an Apprentice Stakes, against humble, exposed opposition where a figure in the mid 80’s can just about win it.

Mela Strength (25 runs), Mariarchi Madness (24 starts) and Tres Chic (35 outings) are two-time winners with decent credentials.

Just maybe Cedar Point, under capable and determined, visiting apprentice Nicola Yuen (from the Hong Kong Jockey Club,) can upstage them. At odds of 4/1 or better, Cedar Point seems worth an each way tickle.

Kannemeyer also saddles 3YO Gallic Victor s/s 93 ++ in Race 5 a Class 4 over 1950m. He and retained jock, Zackey (7 wins and 5 seconds from the last 30 horses ridden) have been striking at a hot rate recently. This extremely promising youngster (offered at even money in early trade) could prove best if the longer distance proves suitable, though contemporary Coco’s Hero s/s 92 and elder King’s Quest s/s 95 are feared.

Bettors trying to nail trifectas and quartets can also use Arbitration s/s 92, Gentleman Joe s/s 91, Heal and Soul s/s 89 plus Dive Bomber s/s 88.

Phil Purser was an Australian racing journalist with an entertaining line of patter though his controversial take on things and call-it-as-I -see it straight-shooting style turned many authorities against him. Eventually, worn out by age, and the stress of being muzzled by officials, he shut down his website and tipping services.

One of Purser’s pet theories was to oppose chronic, long-term losers. He was not remotely interested in supporting horses that had not won for many moons, no matter how persuasive their other form credentials may have been.

He would therefore advise against supporting 5/1 chance Heliotrope s/s 92 in Race 6, even though she is well handicapped on a few lines of form; sports a good course and distance record and should work out a ground-saving trip under capable apprentice, Bungane.

The reason for Purser’s lack of enthusiasm is the fact that Heliotrope is on a 399-day losing streak.

If she again finds a way to get rolled, Lavender Bay s/s 91, My Only Weakness s/s 91 and Two a Penny s/s 91 are likely candidates for No 1 box in a tightly clustered Class 4 contest. 

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Mark van Deventer
Mark Van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. He’s long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer speed figures in America, has always been his inspirational “guru.” So, the figures that underpin Mark’s analysis use Beyer’s main concepts, and have been adapted to suit South African racecourses.

The racing bug can be compelling - since 2013, this U.C.T. Psychology graduate has settled into a career as a full time journalist and racing manager.

Mark uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions, building a reputation of integrity in the media as an imaginative handicapper with the ability to unearth live runners at juicy prices.

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