Match Week 6
Thursday 08 October, 2026The EPL resumes after the international break for Matchweek 6.
Three of the games feature odds on favourites, Arsenal (inevitably) Chelsea and Manchester United. The challenge is to work out which hot favourites are legit, and which could be more vulnerable than the oddsmakers expect.
The other contests are evenly poised, based on the betting market.
The Goal Guru has examined the Interbet EPL 10 sequence and come up with some suggestions for the weekend:
1. ARSENAL 51 vs LEEDS UNITED 46: History gives Leeds little chance, though the Goal Guru Index {G.G.I.} somehow scores it tighter. The bad news for Leeds is that they’ve lost nine of their past 10 Premier League matches against Arsenal by an aggregate scoreline of 24-5. And they’ve succumbed at each of their last seven clashes. Making Arsenal bankers is the go-to strategy that nearly always works (not at their last match vs Brighton, however) and they should get back to winning ways as Mikael Arteta has prevailed all four times he’s opposed Daniel Farke. A small argument can be made for including the draw at 4.3 but to keep costs in check, let’s single the Gunners. [1]
2. ASTON VILLA 27 vs BRENTFORD 51: Villa, with the worst expected goal difference in the League, are languishing in 16th spot on the table with Brentford, who have a significant 24-point margin on the G.G.I., high-flying in fourth. Despite that discrepancy, the market suggests that any of three results is quite realistic. We can try obtain an edge using the G.G.I. as our beacon – and prefer the visitors. [3]
3. SUNDERLAND 38 vs BRIGHTON 58: Dan Bollard and Brian Brobbey are out with hamstring injuries sustained on international duty which makes Sunderland’s already tough task against one of the League’s most free-scoring, aggressively pressing, in-form sides, even more daunting. Interestingly, Brighton is presently ranked the seventh best side in the world, based on Opta’s Power Rankings. [3]
4. IPSWICH 31 vs FULHAM 34: Though still winless this season, Fulham hold the upper hand in historic matchups, winning six of their last eight meetings with the two most recent clashes between them both finishing in draws. Fulham are preferred against the newly promoted teams they face in their upcoming fixtures, though cautious bettors might cover all three outcomes as the G.G.I. scores it so close. [1 2 3]
5. CHELSEA 36 vs BOURNEMOUTH 40: History favours Chelsea in this clash, whilst Bournemouth are yet to win this season. That’s why the home team are 7/10 faves. Let’s add the draw and a possible away victory, both priced up at 33/10, to potentially boost payoffs as Bournemouth are dangerous lurkers. [1 2 3]
6. MANCHESTER UNITED 45 vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR 29: Can United translate a 16-point edge into a win over hapless Spurs? They too are 7/10 favorites to get the job done against a side that is bottom of the table despite spending big bucks under new manager, de Zerbi. [1]
7. HULL CITY 40 vs EVERTON 45: This shapes up as a tight, low scoring game as both sides rarely concede soft goals. The travelling Toffees have yet to lose this season, but Hull has outperformed expectations moving up to the Premiership, and are no pushovers. [1 2 3]
8. CRYSTAL PALACE 30 vs NOTTINGHAM FOREST 44: Both sides are still finding their feet, but Palace has quite a long list of absentees, making Forest who, in any case, outscore them on the G.G.I. a tempting proposition to win at 16/10. Morgan Gibbs White remains a significant playmaker for the visitors to Selhurst Park with his creativity and skill. The draw is added as back-up. [2 3]
9. LIVERPOOL 45 vs MANCHESTER CITY 55: Unbeaten after a relatively “gentle” introduction to the 2026/27 season, Liverpool now face their biggest test so far as they host table toppers, City, who are perfect from five games. That said, Anfield is a bogey venue for City, who have only won three of 29 trips there since the Premier League’s inception in 1992. The last 15 Premier League meetings between these two sides saw more than three goals on average scored per game, so fans are in for plenty excitement. [1 2 3.]
10. COVENTRY CITY 26 vs NEWCASTLE 33: There is a big difference between where Newcastle actually sit in ninth spot and where underlying metrics suggest they “should” be – at rock-bottom, according to the Opta super-computer. Maybe they can continue to ride their luck, but they come up against Coventry who are buoyed by a huge recent win over Forest. [1 2 3]
Suggested perm for MatchWeek 6:
1 x 3 x 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 x 1 2 3 x 2 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 2 3 = R486.00 which can be taken at the 10 cents minimum for R48.60.
Good luck and enjoy the soccer!
The Goal Guru
