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From The Horse's Mouth - Mark Van Deventer

Interbet Betting Blog

Match Week 31

There are only eight EPL matches this week as Arsenal and Wolves are sitting out, together with Manchester City and Crystal Palace.

The final game of this weekend’s sequence - the Spurs vs Nottingham Forest match on Sunday afternoon has crucial implications for relegation possibilities.

3rd on the log, highflyers, Manchester United will try entrench their position when they travel to Bournemouth who remain a hard side to beat.

Fulham are the shortest-priced favourites at 5/10. They host battling, Burnley who nevertheless belied their low ranking and eked out a surprise goalless draw vs Bournemouth a few days ago. Such is the nature of an extremely competitive EPL!

Please note, kick off for the opener is at 22h00 on Friday night. Be sure to place your bets beforehand.

Informed by the Goal Guru Index [G.G.I.] let’s assess each game. 

1. BOURNEMOUTH 49 vs MANCHESTER UNITED 65: Quite some time ago, the Goal Guru predicted a Man U surge as their underlying metrics were rock solid. They have produced excellent results subsequently with Fernandes, their talisman, topping the league for most assists. But Bournemouth are by no means walkovers. They are in illustrious company with City and Arsenal the only three sides that have no red L’s from their last five matches. United are preferred, but covering all three outcomes is the call. [1][2][3]

2. BRIGHTON 38 vs LIVERPOOL 56: The visitors have a far stronger G.G.I. but can blow hot and cold. Even staunch Liverpool fans pulling for a top five finish describe their performances as unconvincing – witness a failure to put away stuttering Spurs on the weekend. As for the Seagulls they have won, lost and drawn exactly ten games each from the 30 played this season. [1][2][3]

3. FULHAM 32 vs BURNLEY 0: The likely outcome here is a Fulham home victory. They don’t often draw (only 5 x this season) instead either win or lose – and this is a game they really should win as Burnley, despite Flemming and Anthony’s goal scoring efforts, are out of their depth in the EPL.

4. EVERTON 39 vs CHELSEA 75: Everton are classed as a hard to beat mid table team, yet Chelsea are fast and skillful enough to overwhelm them. Whilst it’s difficult to stick it past the brilliant Pickford in goal, Chelsea are picked to come out of their mini slump and prevail. [3]

5. LEEDS UNITED 40 vs BRENTFORD 47: Elland Road has been a secure base camp for Leeds, and they simply must keep toting up points to avoid being sucked into the relegation quicksand. Brentford has tremendous talent at both ends of the pitch (Thiago up front and Kellerher in goal to mention just two key personnel) and could edge this. A cautious approach, however, is to mark [1][2][3]

6. NEWCASTLE 47 vs SUNDERLAND 21: Sunderland over-performed their G.G.I. for a while, only to gradually slide and revert to their mean. Like Brighton their record reads 30 – 10 – 10 – 10. Goals have proved hard to come by with Brobbey their top scorer on just 5 strikes. Newcastle is inside the top ten and can finish off the season with a flourish to go even higher. [1]

7. ASTON VILLA 32 vs WEST HAM UNITED 36: Villa (4th on the log) are virtually even money favourites (approximately 50% chance) to secure a home victory against 18th placed Hammers. The market is typically accurate but maybe in this instance West Ham are not being given full credit for their resurgence under wily Nuno, and an upset is not ruled out. [1][2][3]

8. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR 22 vs NOTTINGHAM FOREST 23: One tiny point separating them on the G.G.I. and a similar marginal difference on the league table where they both hover precariously above the relegation zone. Too close to call. [1][2][3]

The suggested Interbet EPL perm for this weekend is a simple construction with three bankers (Fulham, Chelsea & Newcastle) and five “fields” across the eight games:

1 2 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 x 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 x 1 2 3 x 1 2 3 = R243.00

Regular players on Interbet know this soccer wager can be taken in ten cent units. So, if you prefer wagering in smaller amounts, it could be entered for R24.30.

If bankering, Manchester United as well, then the perm would reduce even further:

3 x 1 2 3 x 1 x 3 x 1 2 3 x 1 x 1 2 3 x 1 2 3 = R81.00

This can be taken at a ten-cent unit for R8.10.

Good luck and enjoy the soccer!

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Mark van Deventer
Mark Van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. He’s long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer speed figures in America, has always been his inspirational “guru.” So, the figures that underpin Mark’s analysis use Beyer’s main concepts, and have been adapted to suit South African racecourses.

The racing bug can be compelling - since 2013, this U.C.T. Psychology graduate has settled into a career as a full time journalist and racing manager.

Mark uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions, building a reputation of integrity in the media as an imaginative handicapper with the ability to unearth live runners at juicy prices.

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